Vol.26 No.2

Date of publication: 2019-11
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Professor, Department of Public Finance, National Chengchi University. (Corresponding author); Revenue Officer, Zhongzheng Branch, National Taxation Bureau of Taipei, Ministry of Finance; Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shih Hsin University.
Game-Theoretic Analysis of Making aConcession Decision in an Election
pp.01-22
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In Taiwan, a phenomenon commonly occurs that the candidates of a political party yield to other candidates in election campaigns. This paper establishes a model of game theory in which candidates can decide whether to make a concession in an election when the candidates of another party with similar attributes are running for election. In the case of candidates who do not know the capability of other party candidates, it is easier for candidates to start the concession mechanism when the proportion of a strong type among the other candidates is large and when the candidates from another party concede more benefits.
Ph. D. student, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University; Master, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Combining List Experiment and Internet Survey: Analysis of Taiwanese People’s Attitudes toward Acceptance of Homosexual Legislators
pp.23-52
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Homosexual rights and recognition of same-sex marriage involve important national policies and have received great attention from various fields. Due to the sensitivity of homosexual issues, previous studies have adopted qualitative approaches to addressing homosexual issues. Survey methods and polls open the door for these kinds of sensitive issues. Yet, facing the pressure of social norms, interviewees may hide their true opinions on homosexual issues, which leads to the accuracy problem of polling. Thus, we combined list experiment and internet survey and tried to figure out the acceptance of homosexuality in Taiwan. The data showed that the acceptance of homosexuality among Taiwanese is more than 70%. By comparing the percentages of acceptance in direct and indirect questions, we found that most of answers given by the respondents are independent and undistorted under social pressure. Also, personality, religious factors and party identification still play important roles on the acceptance of homosexuality in Taiwan.
Associate Professor, Center of Holistic Education, Mackay Medical College; Undergraduate student, Mackay Medical College; Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University. (corresponding author)
Estimating the Sincerity of Taiwan Voters: A Model Building Process and Empirical Analysis
pp.53-86
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Along with the democratic development of Taiwanese politics and the diversification of information channels, voters now have access to abundant information prior to elections. Owing to this, the final decision of some voters might be swayed by changes in public opinion polls or by the collective will of groups of people. The actual vote of these citizens may not be what they originally preferred, which cannot be characterized as sincere voting behavior. In the investigation of different types of non-sincere voting behavior, strategic voting is undoubtedly a major research issue among scholars of election studies delving into voter psychology. Strategic voting primarily refers to voters who decide to cast their votes for candidates with better prospects of winning so as to avoid “wasting” their vote. Past overseas literature has confirmed that whether in single-member districts or in proportional representation or multi-member districts, strategic voting has been observed among voters. As for academia in Taiwan, increasing effort has been made in recent years to study strategic voting that may take place in domestic elections, and the definition and measurement of related concepts, such as the effect of split-ticket and party voting. Most studies, however, are confined to observing the results of split-ticket voting, from which they surmise the possibility of strategic voting. In fact, the actual motivation for strategic voting may be very diverse, but the definition of sincere voting is relatively clear and uncontroversial.
Instead, this study attempts to base itself mainly on post election panel records provided by Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), together with an integrated consideration of a pre- and post-election survey and a comparison of election outcomes. With Taiwan’s 2012 presidential cum-parliamentary elections as the source of empirical evidence, this study adopts counterfactual reasoning and literature on the random utility model, applying them to revise the survey results of the original poll data so as to estimate a reasonable proportion of actual sincere voting. Furthermore, it sums up important characteristics of sincere voters who had different vote choices and demonstrated the subtle differences between split-ticket voting, sincere voting and strategic voting. Finally, the study discusses the various statistical differences between these three voting behaviors.
Doctoral Student, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University; Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Please Be My Friend: The Taiwanese Public’s Ally Preferences between the United States and China
pp.87-112
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This study takes advantage of Taiwan public opinion data to examine citizens’ views on whether their country should ally with the United States or China. It tests two hypotheses on how citizens arrive at their choice of an ally: ambivalence toward both the US and China, and an evaluation of which of the two countries is the more powerful. The results reveal that the proportion of the Taiwanese public that would pick China as an ally (41.7%) is almost the same as the proportion that would opt for the US (44.5%). Pan-Blue supporters and those favoring unification with China have a higher probability of choosing China, while Taiwan independence supporters and those identifying as Taiwanese only are less likely to choose China as an ally for Taiwan. Logistic regression analyses show that more ambivalent citizens are more likely to choose China, and that judgement of which country is most powerful is a conditional predictor of choice of ally.
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Last modification time: 2020-02-17 15:27:02