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269 article(s) found.
Professor, Department of Public Finance, National Chengchi University. (Corresponding author); Revenue Officer, Zhongzheng Branch, National Taxation Bureau of Taipei, Ministry of Finance; Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shih Hsin University.
Game-Theoretic Analysis of Making aConcession Decision in an Election
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In Taiwan, a phenomenon commonly occurs that the candidates of a political party yield to other candidates in election campaigns. This paper establishes a model of game theory in which candidates can decide whether to make a concession in an election when the candidates of another party with similar attributes are running for election. In the case of candidates who do not know the capability of other party candidates, it is easier for candidates to start the concession mechanism when the proportion of a strong type among the other candidates is large and when the candidates from another party concede more benefits.
Ph. D. student, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University; Master, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Combining List Experiment and Internet Survey: Analysis of Taiwanese People’s Attitudes toward Acceptance of Homosexual Legislators
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Homosexual rights and recognition of same-sex marriage involve important national policies and have received great attention from various fields. Due to the sensitivity of homosexual issues, previous studies have adopted qualitative approaches to addressing homosexual issues. Survey methods and polls open the door for these kinds of sensitive issues. Yet, facing the pressure of social norms, interviewees may hide their true opinions on homosexual issues, which leads to the accuracy problem of polling. Thus, we combined list experiment and internet survey and tried to figure out the acceptance of homosexuality in Taiwan. The data showed that the acceptance of homosexuality among Taiwanese is more than 70%. By comparing the percentages of acceptance in direct and indirect questions, we found that most of answers given by the respondents are independent and undistorted under social pressure. Also, personality, religious factors and party identification still play important roles on the acceptance of homosexuality in Taiwan.
Associate Professor, Center of Holistic Education, Mackay Medical College; Undergraduate student, Mackay Medical College; Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University. (corresponding author)
Estimating the Sincerity of Taiwan Voters: A Model Building Process and Empirical Analysis
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Along with the democratic development of Taiwanese politics and the diversification of information channels, voters now have access to abundant information prior to elections. Owing to this, the final decision of some voters might be swayed by changes in public opinion polls or by the collective will of groups of people. The actual vote of these citizens may not be what they originally preferred, which cannot be characterized as sincere voting behavior. In the investigation of different types of non-sincere voting behavior, strategic voting is undoubtedly a major research issue among scholars of election studies delving into voter psychology. Strategic voting primarily refers to voters who decide to cast their votes for candidates with better prospects of winning so as to avoid “wasting” their vote. Past overseas literature has confirmed that whether in single-member districts or in proportional representation or multi-member districts, strategic voting has been observed among voters. As for academia in Taiwan, increasing effort has been made in recent years to study strategic voting that may take place in domestic elections, and the definition and measurement of related concepts, such as the effect of split-ticket and party voting. Most studies, however, are confined to observing the results of split-ticket voting, from which they surmise the possibility of strategic voting. In fact, the actual motivation for strategic voting may be very diverse, but the definition of sincere voting is relatively clear and uncontroversial.
Instead, this study attempts to base itself mainly on post election panel records provided by Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), together with an integrated consideration of a pre- and post-election survey and a comparison of election outcomes. With Taiwan’s 2012 presidential cum-parliamentary elections as the source of empirical evidence, this study adopts counterfactual reasoning and literature on the random utility model, applying them to revise the survey results of the original poll data so as to estimate a reasonable proportion of actual sincere voting. Furthermore, it sums up important characteristics of sincere voters who had different vote choices and demonstrated the subtle differences between split-ticket voting, sincere voting and strategic voting. Finally, the study discusses the various statistical differences between these three voting behaviors.
Doctoral Student, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University; Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Please Be My Friend: The Taiwanese Public’s Ally Preferences between the United States and China
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This study takes advantage of Taiwan public opinion data to examine citizens’ views on whether their country should ally with the United States or China. It tests two hypotheses on how citizens arrive at their choice of an ally: ambivalence toward both the US and China, and an evaluation of which of the two countries is the more powerful. The results reveal that the proportion of the Taiwanese public that would pick China as an ally (41.7%) is almost the same as the proportion that would opt for the US (44.5%). Pan-Blue supporters and those favoring unification with China have a higher probability of choosing China, while Taiwan independence supporters and those identifying as Taiwanese only are less likely to choose China as an ally for Taiwan. Logistic regression analyses show that more ambivalent citizens are more likely to choose China, and that judgement of which country is most powerful is a conditional predictor of choice of ally.
Associate Research Professor, Institutum Iurisprudentiae, Academia Sinica
To What Extent Do We Know about Money in Politics? An Assessment of the Political Finance Disclosure Law in Taiwan Download
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Disclosure is the most important means by which citizens in a democracy obtain information about money in electoral politics, and as such, the efficacy of the political finance disclosure determines, to a significant extent, what and how much we know about the actual workings of a political finance system. This study assesses political finance disclosure in Taiwan. While recognizing that sanctions against false disclosure are bound
to be under-enforced, this study argues that loopholes in the coverage of the disclosure rules are the main culprits for the “dark money” in Taiwan politics. This study calls for a structural overhaul of the existing regime, the institutional performance of which is seriously hindered by a conventional
misunderstanding of the purpose of political finance disclosure. In addition to tracking transactions of political finance at the retail level for the sake of informing voters and enforcing other rules governing political finance, an effective disclosure regime should strive to provide citizens with information about macro-political finance.
Postdoctoral Fellow, Center Survey Research, Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica.
Allocation of Dual-Frame Telephone Survey for Given Cost Download
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With the increase of cell phone usage in recent years, traditional landline surveys face a problem of incomplete coverage. It is now necessary to conduct dual-frame telephone surveys that includes cell phone samples and landline samples. Designing a dual-frame telephone survey requires a decision on the sample allocation. The allocation of the sample to the dual-frame associates with the unequal weighting effect and the survey cost. Therefore, this study aimed to illustrate an optimal allocation of respondents from landline and cellphone frames that result in the lowest unequal weight effect (i.e., the highest effective sample size) for a given cost by using the relative unit cost of obtaining a cell respondent compared to a landline respondent from a comparison study of survey cost, and an unequal weighting effect from “Public Value and Electronic Governance.” The results suggested that the optimal design will have 64.18% of the sample completes from the landline frame, and 35.82% of the sample completes from the cellphone frame in a cell-phone-only screened design. Additionally, this paper shows that the sample sizes of cell phone only could be a function of unequal weight effect and survey cost. Thus, the organizer of the cell-phone-only screened design could substitute parameters into the function depending on different situations.
Associate Professor, Department of Applied Social Science, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Clinical Associate Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas; Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
Mass Production of Individualized Services: Machine Politics in Hong Kong Download
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Political machines are built to distribute spoils, buy support, and influence election outcome. Existing research argues that political machines target poor and illiterate voters because their votes are cheap to acquire with non-programmatic benefits. Using the case of Hong Kong, we critically examine the extent to which the ruling coalition utilizes non-programmatic benefits in elections where votes are generally too expensive to purchase. Using interviews with local councilors and data from the 2015 Hong Kong Election Study, we find that: (1) pro-Beijing parties tend to specialize in the provision of highly individualized services; (2) demand for these services tends to come from non-poor citizens; and (3) unable to monitor individual votes, pro-Beijing parties use services and benefits to influence the turnout of the recipients, rather than their vote choice. These findings suggest that the growing electoral strength of pro-Beijing parties in Hong Kong reflects their responsiveness to constituent demands.
Associate Professor, Department of Journalism, Chinese Culture University; Assistant Professor, Department of Information Management, Chung Yuan Christian University (Corresponding author)
Taiwan 2016: How Political Candidates’ Adoption of Facebook Fan Pages and Interaction with Supporters Relate to Election Outcomes Download
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The adoption of social media in political marketing has grown dramatically over the past ten years, as it creates two-way communication that stimulates and fosters candidates’ relationships with voters. However, can the count of “supporters” and “likes” recorded on the Facebook page of a candidate predict whether he/she will win the elections or not? In view of this, predicting an electoral outcome using “big” social media data is a new research topic that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. This study examines the extent to which political candidates’ use of Facebook fan pages and interaction with their supporters are related to the election outcomes (vote share and election success) of Taiwan’s 2016 legislator election campaign. Facebook data were acquired for all 354 candidates. The findings indicate: a candidate’s Facebook presence is related to his/her election outcomes. Positive correlations were also observed to exist between the numbers of supporters/likes candidates secured on their official fan pages and their popular vote share. Moreover, the “net-fans ratio” preliminary model, based on a candidate’s likes/supporters and excluding those repeated with respective opponents, has an explanatory power to forecast regional legislators’ election outcome with 81.5% accuracy of all the seats, and with 87.9% accuracy of the seats of 6 major municipalities. Hence, Facebook data could be a significant indicator of electoral success.
Ph. D., Department of Political Science, University of New Orleans;Associate Professor, Department of Public Affairs and Civil Education, National Changhua University of Education.
Governance Performance, Racial Factor, and the Mayor’s Approval Rating: The Case of New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina Download
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U.S. political scientists have long been attracted to the issue of how citizens evaluate their chief executive, both in central and local governments. Some scholars claim that people’s perception of the quality of their life makes a huge impact on their approval of the chief executive while researchers of other schools indicate the racial factor is the one playing the most important role in it.
This research compares a racial model to a performance model in
explaining the approval of the mayor of New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina, analyzing the dynamics of job approval of the black mayor, Ray Nagin. By analyzing the 2004, 2006 and 2007 Quality of Life study survey data offered by the Survey Research Center, University of New Orleans, we concluded the findings suggest that the mayoral approval rating is affected by both the factor of race and governance performance.
However, the racial model makes an even greater impact on the case of Mayor Nagin than performance model does. The dramatic change of Mayor Nagin’s racial support base before and after Hurricane Katrina demonstrates that race is a crucial factor in influencing New Orleans residences’ approval of their mayor.
Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center and Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research; Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Political Emotions and the 2016 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
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This study will examine how emotions might affect people’s choice of vote. I will employ the 2016 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2016) to see how voters’ emotions toward major presidential candidates affect their vote choices. Previous research argues that some positive emotions, such as hope and pride, and some negative emotions, such as anxiety and fear, might play critical roles in shaping citizens’ opinions. For an open-seat presidential election, looking forward and reasoning back, voters employ hopeful and fearful emotions to make their voting decisions. As expected, voters with a fearful feeling toward Tsai Ing-wen are less likely to support her. We also find that those who are angry with Chu Li-luan tend not to vote for him. Emotions shed some light on our understanding of voting behavior in Taiwan.