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272 article(s) found.
Chiung-chu Lin,Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Yuan-ming Hsu,Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Shiow-duan Hawang,Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Gender Difference in Political Knowledge: A Measurement Perspective Download
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This paper aims to study the gender difference on political knowledge from a measurement perspective. It asks if the gender difference becomes smaller when the questionnaires are more related to female essentials, and it further examines the factors that lead to gender difference. By using survey data from the TEDS2013, this paper breaks down the concept of political knowledge into three categories: knowledge of female politicians, knowledge of political institutions, and overall political knowledge. Based on the results from multiple regression models, the findings are clear that males have a better political knowledge than females in general. Females, however, demonstrated a better performance on the knowledge of female politicians. This shows an increasingly clear pattern of female political knowledge when the questionnaires are more closely associated with female essentials. The factors that lead to gender differences include the level of education, exposure to newspapers, political interest, marital status, and the degree of satisfaction with the president’s performance. People with a higher level of education, with more exposure to newspapers, with a greater degree of political interest, those who are married, and express less satisfaction with the president’s performance display higher political knowledge.
Teng-wen Chang,Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Tong-yi Huang,Professor, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Yung-tai Hung,Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Post-Strati.ed Estimation Procedures for the Dual Frame Telephone Survey in Taiwan: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election Download
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The advancement of information and communication technologies has greatly changed the lifestyle of people while using landline surveys in soliciting precise public opinion is becoming limited. As people use a variety of devices such as cellphones, internet phones and APPs in daily communication, problems of insufficient population coverage arise from relying only on landline phones to reach respondents. Therefore, a daunting task in the telephone polling industry is to ensure sample representation for obtaining precise population parameters. To achieve such an objective, a common practice by pollsters in Taiwan is to use household data as weighting statistics. Many cases, however, have shown this practice to be inappropriate.
To solve the above-mentioned problem, this study proposes an estimation method based on a dual frame survey that combines landline phones and cellphones. We further use data from the 2016 presidential election to compare different estimations based on a dual frame survey. Our results demonstrate that a “landline survey supplemented by cellphone-only” is the best combination, considering sample coverage and estimation error. The second-best alternatives are “cellphone survey supplemented by landline-only” and “use both landline and cellphone.” In other words, “the most economical and efficient” strategy of a dual frame survey is to conduct a traditional landline survey and incorporating cellphone-only respondents. The data collected in such combination not only reflect the characteristics of the population, but also cost much less than other strategies.
Karl Ho, Clinical Associate Professor, School of Economic, Policy and Political Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas.
Cal Clark, Emeritus Professor, Department of Political Science, Auburn University.
Alexander C. Tan, Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury (NZ), and Chair Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Politicized to Mobilize? A Longitudinal Study of First-Time Voters’ Voting Intentions in Taiwan, 2004-2016 Download
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Much has been made about the “coming of age” of many Taiwanese young and new voters as an important factor contributing to the gratifying electoral result of the DPP and its pan-Green allies. The Taiwanese case, then, may be considered an aberration as the increased political activism among the younger Taiwanese voters stands in some contrast to the supposed apathy of their counterparts in the Western world. Indeed, this particular generation of young Taiwanese voters may have been “politicized” so much so that they are also easily “mobilized.” In this paper, we examine whether Taiwanese new voters are indeed politicized and whether their politicization translates to voting intentions. Using longitudinal TEDS surveys to detect common patterns of first-time voters’ voting behavior, preliminary results from our multivariate analysis indicate that first-time voters are not different in likelihood of participating in voting compared to other voters. The subtle difference, however, resides on the viable options with which these young cohorts can identify. This can be part of the reason they are more supportive of the new parties than merely the traditional parties.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica.
Do Contacts Matter? Public Impressions of a Rising China in Taiwan (in English) Download
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The emergence of China as a first-tier world power is a critical issue both politically and economically, but what is often overlooked is how more frequent interaction with China influences public opinion. This study is aimed at assessing two competing approaches, "contact" theory and "group threat" theory, in an effort to understand how exposure to and contact with China influence Taiwanese citizens' impressions of China. More specifically, it focuses on how, as cross-Strait relations develop, the public in Taiwan may either have positive views or negative feelings toward China. Methodologically, in addition to the objective measurement of contact (exposure to China) employed in the previous literature, the paper uses a subjective measurement of contact (willingness to interact with China). This study analyzes both individual-level and aggregate-level datasets in the models; in doing this, it takes advantage of a 2014 nationwide telephone survey and considers the effects of the regional context. The findings demonstrate that the subjective measurement shows more variance in public opinion on China than the objective measure, and the contextual variables exert conditional influences upon Taiwanese people's overall disposition toward China. The results by and large confirm the validity of contact theory, but also indicate that it is too simplistic and straightforward, and therefore in need of revision. The data reveal that greater exposure is not enough to foster greater trust and cooperation between the two sides; it is increased willingness to interact that creates more favorable impressions.
Yi-shuan Chen, Associate Professor, Department of Insurance and Finance, National Taichung University of Science and Technology.
Tsui-yueh Cho, Associate Professor, Department of Insurance and Finance, National Taichung University of Science and Technology (corresponding author).
Shih-ting Pai, Bachelor Student, Department of Insurance and Finance, National Taichung University of Science and Technology.
The Impact of Presidential Elections on Taiwan's Stock Market (in Chinese) Download
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We use the event study approach to examine the impact of six direct presidential elections from 1996 to 2016 on the Taiwan stock market. Based on whether the pre-election polls show a significant winner or not, we separate all samples into expected and unexpected subsamples. We find a negative abnormal return during the pre-election windows and a positive abnormal return for the 30-day election period for the whole samples. However, the Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAR) are not greater for the unexpected subsamples than they are for the expected subsamples, an outcome not consistent with the prediction of the Uncertain Information Hypothesis (UIH). Moreover, according to entrepreneurs' support for a specific candidate before the election dates, we divide their shares into the "Kuomintang-party-concept" and the "Democratic-Progressive-Party-concept" stocks. We investigate the election effect on these two concept stocks, as well as on their subsidiary company shares. Moreover, we find that the expected-losing-party stocks have a smaller CAR during the pre-event window but a greater CAR during the whole 30-day window than the expected-winning-party shares, as predicted by the UIH. These findings suggest that investors in the Taiwan stock market have a stronger reaction to bad news than to good news.
Cheng-hao Pao, Associate Professor, Department of Global Politics and Economics, Tamkang University.
Party Image and Indigenous Voting Choice: A Case Study of the 2016 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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Due to inherent difficulties of minority surveys, our understanding of indigenous election politics largely depends on qualitative studies. However, such studies usually lead to contradictory results because of different cases or interviewees. It is hard to develop a general explanation. This paper, as the very first one to study the relationship between party image and indigenous voting choice by implementing a quantitative method in Taiwan, can improve our understanding of indigenous voting behavior and lay a foundation for future relevant studies. The research results indicate that indigenous voting choice is influenced by party image. Party image affects voting choice significantly. Even under the condition of controlling party identification, the influence of party image on voting choice is still significant. In other words, party image is differs from party identification conceptually but both affect voting choice. This study found that when the direction of party image is the same as party identification, voting choice tends to be consistent with party image and party identification. However, for political neutrals, due to the fact that the DPP's party image is "making progress, changing the status quo, and offering more opportunities to young people," which is more attractive than the KMT's party "conservative" image, they tend to vote DPP.
Shun-chuan Chang, Assistant Professor, Holistic Education Center, Mackay Medical College.
Wen-jong Juang, Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University(corresponding author).
Transcending Ideological Barriers for Voting? New Applications of Political Territory Analysis in the 2014 Taipei City Mayoral Election (in Chinese) Download
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The 2014 Taipei City mayoral election was overwhelmingly won by a grass-roots candidate, Dr. Wen-je Ko, who has been regarded as "Deep Green" in terms of Taiwan's political spectrum, but promoted the slogan "One City One Family" for new white power in this campaign. The rooted voting behaviors described by traditional political territories in Taipei City were supposed to be on the verge of imminent collapse, and whether the signal of transcending ideological barriers for voting in this case was grounded in reality or myth, is still worth exploring. This study conducted several tests for trend analyses used in nonparametric statistics and interpreted new applications based on political territory in this mayoral election. Furthermore, this study has three primary innovative perspectives. First, based on the voting database from the Central Election Commission for election studies, this study can explain how to utilize the basic unit of household address, such as Li, for building political territories, and our models presented the grouping political spectrum structures of voting behaviors of voters living in Taipei City by clustering analysis. This study can also develop a more novel approach to the combination of domestic political territory research and trend analyses embedded in nonparametric statistics, such as the Mann-Kendall test, the Theil-Sen's slope estimator, and Pettit test statistics for change-point detection, which are all adapted to analyze the trend characteristics for changing voting behaviors in Taipei City. Finally, based on built political territories, and linked with relevant concepts of political polarization, political party identity, and allocation effects when political parties drum up votes, the research results can determine and gain insight into the transcending of ideological barriers for voting in the 2014 Taipei City mayoral election.
Cody Wai-kwok Yau, Ph. D. Candidate, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-Sen University.
The Meaning of “Taiwanese”: Conceptualizing the Components of Taiwanese National Identity (in English) Download
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One of the problems with empirical studies of Taiwanese/Chinese identity in Taiwan is the use of over-simplified measurements based on responses to a question involving three choices: is your nationality Taiwanese, Chinese, or both? This study attempts to produce a new model with a more fine-grained conceptualization of national identity in Taiwan. The model is derived from Rawi Abdelal et al.’s idea of social identity, and applies Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to survey data, to develop a social psychological framework using three independent latent variables: “national norms,”“national closeness,” and “national purposes,” and a single dependent latent variable: “state identity.” The results of this re-analysis show all three of the independent variables have significant positive correlations with the dependent variable “state identity.” Of the independent variables, national norms has the highest total effect.

For respondents self-identifying as Taiwanese (T respondents) and respondents self-identifying as Chinese (C respondents), there were significant differences in two dimensions: national purposes and national norms. The strength of T respondents’ national purposes is higher than C respondents while the strength of C respondents’ national norms is higher than T respondents. In addition, a comparison of total effect value and outer weight found that T respondents and respondents self-identifying as both Taiwanese and Chinese (B respondents) also differed. Both T and B respondents stress on “state-building,” a component of the latent variable national purposes. For the dependent variable state identity, however, B and T respondents differ. T respondents take a pro-Taiwan and anti-unification stance. B respondents, however, take a pro-“Republic of China” and prodemocratic unification stance. Variables such as age, education, and social contacts all have moderating effects for both T and B respondents but not great enough to change the path direction.
Lu-huei Chen, Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center / Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Ying-nan Chen, Ph. D., Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Political Emotions and their Effects on Cross- Strait Economic Exchange: A Study of College Students in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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During the impressionable years of college students, their political orientations are still amenable. Therefore, exploring the political attitudes of college students sheds light on our understanding of Taiwan’s electoral politics. Beginning from the Sunflower Movement in 2014, college students’ attitudes toward cross-Strait relations has attracted the public’s attention. This study argues that we have to take political emotions into consideration when we analyze college students’ attitudes on cross-Srait relations. We employ panel studies to examine how political emotions affect their stances on cross-Strait economic exchange. We demonstrate that when college students feel enthusiasm toward Taiwan or feel hopeful toward Mainland China, they are more likely to support cross-Strait economic exchange. However, students with feelings of anxiety tend to urge the government to take strict measures on cross-Strait economic exchanges. As for students with a hopeful attitude toward Mainland China, they are willing to support the Cross-Strait Service and Trade Agreement, but those who harbor feelings of anger toward Mainland China tend to be opposed to this agreement. Therefore, this study shows that political emotions play an important role in college students’ attitudes toward cross-Strait relations.
Ding-ming Wang, Former Professor of Department of Political Science and Graduate Institute of Public Affair, National Taiwan University.
Ming-feng Kuo, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Graduate Institute of Public Affair, National Taiwan University. (Corresponding author)
An Analysis of Ambiguous Voting Choice: Electoral Uncertainty in the 2010 Kaohsiung Mayoral Election (in Chinese) Download
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This paper, based on the 2010 Kaohsiung mayoral election, explores candidate ambiguity during the campaign and the corresponding voting behavior under a veil of uncertainty. Current research limits the ambiguity to the candidate’s unclear policy standpoints and disregards the notion that the ambiguity may simply reside in the voters’ own uncertainty. To relieve these constraints, several statistical examinations, including estimating the Condorcet winner, the IIA test under Multinomial Logit, and the Distinguishability test under Stereotype Logit, are proposed to observe how voters directly respond to ambiguity. Among those, Stereotype Logit is especially emphasized and is anticipated to be the most fitting choice model to estimate voting behavior under uncertainty.

According to the estimation results, there is couple ambiguity observed in this mayoral election: First, despite the outcome of Chen Chu as the Condorcet winner, there is no defined Condorcet loser in this campaign. It indicates that voters’ preferences are not completely organized and transitive. Second, candidates in this election are not mutually independent from the voter’s perspective. People are likely to respond differently if one of the candidates stops the campaign based on the test results. Third, it is especially difficult for voters to distinguish between Yang Chiu-hsing and Huang Chaoshun. Chen Chu, on the other hand, has no ambiguity concern with the othercandidates. This paper substantiates that Yang Chiu-hsing, defected from the DPP, mainly to attract pan KMT ballots.