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272 article(s) found.
Nathan F. Batto, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science
Partisan Politics and Redistricting in Taiwan, 2005-2007 (in English) Download
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This paper examines partisan politics in the redistricting process in Taiwan in 2005-2007 to explain why neither major party was able to obtain its best plan in every city or county. Theoretically, the degree of partisanship depends on the extent to which guidelines constrain decision makers, the partisan composition of decision making bodies, and the sequence of action. In this specific case, there were four stages. Redistricting plans went through local election commissions, the Central Election Commission, the legislature, and negotiations between the speaker and the premier. At each stage, the effects of the guidelines, composition, and sequence are considered in detail. In addition, three counties are examined, illustrating the three common patterns: consensus, dominance by the local election commission, and partisan conflict. From a public policy standpoint, the framework presented in this paper provides a way to assess how various reform proposals would alter the incentive and constraints facing various actors. Politically, the framework suggests how future redistricting may differ from the 2005-2007 round, especially if Taiwan has unified government.
Shih-chan Dai, Ph.D. student, Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts Amherst, U.S.
Coming out of Silence: Candidates’ Stances on LGBT Rights in Taiwan’s 2014 Municipal Councilor Elections (in English) Download
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Although public opinion in Taiwan is increasingly in favor of gay rights, there is no corresponding trend at the elite level and no concrete policy changes have been achieved. Based on the logic of electoral competition and political socialization, this paper takes the 2014 elections for municipal councilors in Taiwan as an example and examines the factors influencing support for LGBT equality among local politicians. Theoretically, although the centrifugal effect of the SNTV system motivates candidates of the same party to differ from each other on a variety of issues, political socialization, on the contrary, encourages a more unified issue stance taken among party members. The results of multilevel models suggest that there is little linkage between the characteristics of constituents, the electoral rule, and candidates’ stances on gay rights. However, both partisanship and age play an indispensable role. Candidates who are members of the DPP or one of the liberal parties are more likely to support LGBT rights than their KMT counterparts.
Guo-chen Wang, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. (corresponding author)
Impact of Electoral Reforms on Stability and Change in Voting Behavior: Elections to the Legislative Yuan, 1998-2012 (in Chinese) Download
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This study uses the method of two-stage least squares of dynamic panel data models to examine the variables closely related to electoral stability and change in Taiwan, especially focusing on the impact of electoral reform of the Legislative Yuan in 2008 on voting behavior. To account for causal effects, the analysis includes 1,820 observations consisted of the 364 township and village-level units of five legislative elections from 1998 to 2012. The data sources come from the archive of election outcomes officially released by the Central Election Commission, and the statistical yearbooks published by county and city governments. The findings reveal that the variables of electoral reforms, types of electoral system, gender ratio, the level of educational attainment, and proportion of civil servants present statistically significant associations with the index of vote volatility.In addition, the factors of macroeconomic conditions, voting patterns, and geographical contexts emerge as statistically significant and in the anticipated directions. The empirical results demonstrate the Duverger’s law and also the self-fulfilling prophecy; i.e., the reforms of electoral system exert a profound effect of the stability and change of voting behavior. There are at least three academic implications that can be drawn from the outcome of this study. First, this study verifies the relationship between electoral system, party system, and electoral stability and change. Second, it empirically measures the vote volatility index which might be valuable for campaign strategies. Last, different from the qualitative and limited dependent variable models in the previous studies of political participation, this study takes advantage of a dynamic panel data model to assess the impact of electoral reforms on stability and change in voting behavior. Developing an electoral model that is both concise and accurate awaits future research.
Ming-tong Chen, Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Shi-huei Yang, Ph.D. candidate, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Spill-over Effects of the “Ko Wen-je Phenomenon” in Taiwan’s 2014 Local Elections: Case Study of Potential Coattail Effects on DPP Hsinchu City Mayoral Candidate Lin Chi-jian (in Chinese) Download
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In nation-wide local elections held on November 29, 2014, the Kuomintang (KMT) suffered its worst defeat in the post-war history of local elections in Taiwan. The party saw its control of the country’s 22 local executive posts dwindle from 15 to only 6. Most notable among the KMT’s setbacks was its mayoral election defeat in the Taipei City, which had been run by a KMT mayor for 16 years. Ko Wen-je, an independent who ran under the banner of a “grand opposition alliance,” defeated KMT candidate Sean Lien by nearly 250,000 votes. The KMT’s post-election review report pointed to spill-over effects from the Taipei election to other local contests as one of the reasons for its crushing defeat nation-wide.

Did the “Ko Wen-je phenomenon” truly produce such spill-over effects? This study looks at the Hsinchu City mayoral election, using various empirical data to assess potential spill-over effects from Ko’s Taipei candidacy to that of DPP Hsinchu City mayoral candidate Lin Chi-jian. Hierarachical non-linear modeling is applied to analyze a combination of individual-level and macro-level data. The data analysis shows that with respect to individual-level variables, voters’ preference for Lin Chi-jian, party-orientation, and age clearly influenced the level of support for Lin’s candidacy. At the macro-level, support for Lin was positively correlated with Ko Wen-je’s level of support and media exposure as well as positive commentary on Ko’s candidacy on television news programs. The results of the study confirm the existence of coattail effects of the Ko Wen-je phenomenon in Taiwan’s 2014 local elections.
Shun-chuan Chang, Assistant Professor, Holistic Education Center, Mackay Medical College.
Wen-jong Juang, Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Cheng-hsiang Chang, Master of Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Understanding Party Vote Share and Split Voting: An Application of Bland-Altman Difference Plot and Political Relative Development Index (in Chinese) Download
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Taiwan has been under electoral reforms in recent years: Legislator election in 2008 started to adopt “single-district two votes system”. Combined legislative and presidential elections in 2012 allowed voters to vote for president, at-large legislators and local legislators concurrently for the first time, offering a great opportunity to study party vote share and split voting in general elections. There were practical researches on split voting, some of which analyse micro information from polls, and some are based on the macro data of votes in elections. However, these studies took into consideration neither the size of eligible voters in districts nor the ratio of national votes to regional votes a party or candidate get, which thus makes it hard to determine the correlation between split voting, the size of electoral districts and a party’s real political power strength.

This study attempts to examine party vote share and split voting from a novel perspective on proposing a new measurement and exemplifying with the general election in Taiwan in 2012. The research started with calculating the vote share of the Pan-Blue Coalition, the Pan-Green Coalition and each party in 368 administrative districts and gauging the voting gap with a traditional inspection method. Secondly, we tried to use a Bland-Altman difference plot to show the pattern of split voting by districts since every party’s ability to gain votes varies with areas. Thirdly, we discussed the strengths and inadequacies of the application to Bland-Altman difference. And then, the political relative development index, BDI and CDI, are introduced as the new framework for ascertaining party vote share and
measuring split voting to decide the relative level of voters’ support for some party, the Pan-Blue Coalition or the Pan-Green Coalition. Finally, the result from the new measurement is compared with that from the traditional method to validate the performance of the new approach, as well as to indicate future
research direction.
Chih-sung Teng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Chia-feng Huang, Doctoral Student, Department of Politics, University of California, Riverside.
Chin-en Wu, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Environmental Protest and Green Party Vote Share: An Investigation of Party List Vote in the 2012 Legislative Election (in Chinese) Download
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We investigate the relationship between environmental protests and parties’ vote shares. Whether environmental protest contributes to the vote share of the Green party? As Green party emphasizes environment protection, people who suffer from environmental pollution is more likely to endorse Green Party. If not, what are the factors behind the situation? We collect and categorize environmental protest data between 1987 and 2009. Applying GIS and spatial analysis, we collapse protest events by township and issue types. Combining legislative election results, we analyze the influence of environmental protests on the vote shares of parties. The empirical result shows that anti-industrial pollution protests exert the most significant effect on party vote share but the influence varies across parties.

First, anti-industrial pollution protest is not significantly associated with the vote share of Green Party. The larger the number of anti-industrial pollution protest in a township, the higher the DPP’s vote share and the lower the KMT’s vote share. For the other types of environmental protests, we do not find comparable effect of protests on vote sharing. In this article we also find that it is socio-economic status of a township rather than the intensity of environmental protest that affect the electoral performance of Green party. Finally, the empirical model also demonstrates the significance of neighborhood effect on parties’ vote shares.
Da-wei Kuan, Associate Professor, Department of Ethnology, National Chengchi University.
Shih-yuan Lin, Associate Professor, Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University.
Su-feng Cheng, Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
A Preliminary Study of Single Member District Delimitation for Indigenous Legislators in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Two often discussed issues remain in the elections for indigenous legislators in Taiwan. One is the way for identifying plain or mountain indigenous district is outdated and the other is, unlike their regional counterparts, the multiple member district is continued to be implemented in election. The former is an issue related to constitution regulation which implies a considerably difficult to be dealt with under current circumstance. Yet, though the constitution does prescribe the number of total indigenous legislators for plain and mountain areas respectively, it does not prescribe the district magnitude for each election. This has provided a possibility for redistricting the indigenous legislators in election. This paper aims at redistricting the boundary from multiple member district into single member district and assessing the potential impacts on the elections for indigenous legislators.

Three redistricting proposals are provided by this paper, the result suggests that in general, the criteria for delimitation such as population equality, contiguity and compactness could all be achieved. As for the impacts of replacing the multiple member district by single member district, this paper suggests that since population from the four main tribes of Amis, Paiwan, Atayal and Bunun make up eighty percent of the indigenous population, the electoral result after redistricting will not be dramatically different from those of multiple member district, all the seats might remain to be shared by the four main tribes. It is argued that, since indigenous legislators enjoy a solid electoral base at home, redistricting the electoral boundary would not affect her/his prospects for electoral victory. Moreover, the redistricting would significantly reduce the size of district and thus enable a more thorough constituency service.
Chao-chi Lin, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Health Care Issues in the Japanese General Election of 2009: A Case Study of Electoral Strategies in the Sixth District in Ibaraki Prefecture (in Chinese) Download
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It is always challenging for an inexperienced candidate to compete with an incumbent. By drawing upon a combination of archival research and fieldwork, this paper uses the sixth district in Ibaraki Prefecture as a case study to investigate how challengers are able to use policy issues to overcome the drawbacks of lacking name recognition and local networks, and win elections. In 2009, the challenger Hiroko Ooizumi called for abolishing the unpopular newly-implemented Health Insurance System for the Elderly which was interpreted as “bullying the senior.” This system mainly affected people aged at least 75 and was considered to be a niche issue. However, Ms. Ooizumi and her major support group, the Ibaraki Medical Association, strategically appealed to the public instead of elderly people only, by arguing that everybody could be affected sooner or later, thereby creating a collective anxiety regarding the future, and instilling a desire for change. Moreover, competition has become increasingly partybased since Japan adopted the mixed system. The opposition has further taken advantage of this atmosphere, and has blamed the then ruling party and the incumbent Mr. Yuya Niwa for causing the public’s worry, making voters feel that if they do not want to continue this policy, they should vote for the opposition and the challenger to stop it. In other words, the challenger has successfully made the health care issue sufficiently compelling to mobilize the voters who have for a long time supported the incumbent to switch their allegiance and support her and thereby stop the policy.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor, Department of Political Science and Senior Research Fellow, Election Study Center,
National Chengchi University.
Endogenous Regressors in Nonlinear Probability Models: A Generalized Structural Equation Modeling Approach (in English) Download
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Endogeneity of explanatory variables is a common problem in many areas of social sciences. Ironically, there seems to be a gap between being aware of the problem and knowing how best to handle it. The problem is exacerbated when the outcome variable of interest is categorical and thus non-linear probability models are involved. The study fills the gap by first distinguishing two main sources of endogeneity, including unmeasured confounders (“latent factors”) and measured but omitted causes (“endogenous mediators”), and then proposing an integrated approach to confront the two problems simultaneously. This strategy generalizes structural equation models to categorical outcome by including a shared latent factor between correlated error terms to tackle unobserved confounders, on the one hand, and extending mediation analysis to deal with potentially endogenous discrete mediators, on the other hand. For illustrative purpose, this proposed modeling strategy is presented with an example of heated debates in economic voting literature concerning the possible endogeneity of voters’ economic perceptions.
Chi-lin Tsai, Ph. D. student, Department of Government, University of Essex, UK.
Too Far To Vote: A Preliminary Analysis Of Residential Absentees’ Electoral Behaviours in Taiwan (in English) Download
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Most of studies on absentee voting in Taiwan have concentrated on normative and institutional analysis. This article brings empirical analysis onto focus by using survey as well as census data to examine the electoral behaviour of the electors who do not reside in their registered households, i.e. residential absentees. Research results – which cover several nationwide elections held between 2000 and 2012 – confirm that residential absentees are indeed less likely to vote than are those who live in their registered households. However, the data show no compelling evidence for the claim that the result of the 2012 presidential election would have been turned around, had all of residential absentees turned out to vote. Due to the limitations of data, these findings can only be extrapolated to people who are residentially absent but still living in Taiwan. In order to make better projections about the possible impacts of the forthcoming absentee voting system, future research should therefore manage to include the other types of residential absentees into investigation.